LA Exodus · Verification Worksheet

Where every dollar figure in natefriedmanshow.com/money-leaving-la.html comes from — Los Angeles County (FIPS 06037) rows extracted from the IRS Statistics of Income County-to-County Migration Data files, three tax-filing years.

Tax-filing year 2020–21

Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2020-2021
Outflow file: countyoutflow2021.csv (4.2 MB, download)  ·  Inflow file: countyinflow2021.csv (4.2 MB, download)

Filter applied: y1_statefips=6, y1_countyfips=37 (Los Angeles County) AND y2_statefips ≠ 6 (destination is a US state other than California). Then sum the agi column × 1,000 (file values are in $thousands).

Destination state FIPS Counties Returns (n1) People (n2) AGI ($)
Texas 48 47 11,679 21,568 $1.321B
Florida 12 36 5,789 9,203 $988.32M
Nevada 32 6 7,971 13,874 $840.88M
Arizona 04 11 7,276 12,396 $608.34M
Washington 53 21 5,137 7,959 $586.73M
New York 36 21 4,643 6,022 $485.04M
Colorado 08 18 3,416 5,326 $342.78M
Tennessee 47 14 1,914 3,513 $314.36M
Utah 49 9 2,104 3,972 $292.84M
Oregon 41 18 3,172 4,893 $243.57M
Georgia 13 20 2,483 4,382 $210.39M
Illinois 17 11 2,048 2,944 $184.58M
Massachusetts 25 11 1,658 2,294 $178.12M
Idaho 16 9 1,371 2,719 $167.97M
North Carolina 37 21 1,769 3,029 $160.49M
Virginia 51 16 1,469 2,482 $130.42M
New Jersey 34 16 1,392 2,079 $129.95M
Pennsylvania 42 19 1,389 2,032 $119.82M
Hawaii 15 4 1,083 1,661 $109.11M
Connecticut 09 7 644 1,021 $90.39M
Maryland 24 8 976 1,513 $83.32M
Ohio 39 14 1,141 1,765 $79.85M
Michigan 26 9 899 1,408 $74.48M
Minnesota 27 6 648 1,030 $65.44M
South Carolina 45 13 667 1,138 $60.15M
New Mexico 35 6 734 1,151 $59.27M
Missouri 29 9 748 1,160 $58.03M
Montana 30 6 375 629 $45.91M
District of Columbia 11 1 480 574 $41.16M
Oklahoma 40 5 586 1,114 $39.31M
Indiana 18 9 528 883 $39.10M
Louisiana 22 6 409 608 $34.32M
Kansas 20 6 371 620 $30.31M
Wisconsin 55 4 340 506 $26.07M
Wyoming 56 3 109 174 $24.71M
Arkansas 05 4 343 650 $22.04M
Alabama 01 7 316 529 $21.32M
New Hampshire 33 4 186 268 $19.98M
Kentucky 21 7 310 500 $18.16M
Nebraska 31 3 231 408 $17.24M
Rhode Island 44 4 176 244 $14.34M
Maine 23 2 129 191 $14.27M
Delaware 10 2 122 171 $11.17M
South Dakota 46 2 110 202 $9.31M
Alaska 02 3 141 221 $7.88M
Iowa 19 2 168 238 $7.63M
Vermont 50 2 68 100 $6.95M
Mississippi 28 3 92 156 $4.48M
North Dakota 38 2 42 71 $1.79M
SUM — outflow LA → other states 487 rows 79,852 131,591 $8.443B
Inflow LA ← other states (from countyinflow2021.csv) $4.233B
NET AGI LOSS = outflow − inflow $4.210B

Tax-filing year 2021–22

Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2021-2022
Outflow file: countyoutflow2122.csv (4.3 MB, download)  ·  Inflow file: countyinflow2122.csv (4.3 MB, download)

Filter applied: y1_statefips=6, y1_countyfips=37 (Los Angeles County) AND y2_statefips ≠ 6 (destination is a US state other than California). Then sum the agi column × 1,000 (file values are in $thousands).

Destination state FIPS Counties Returns (n1) People (n2) AGI ($)
Texas 48 46 11,639 21,361 $1.346B
Florida 12 37 6,061 9,856 $880.94M
Nevada 32 7 7,964 13,414 $736.67M
Arizona 04 11 6,762 11,558 $663.84M
Washington 53 19 4,968 7,344 $605.28M
New York 36 20 5,790 7,363 $416.54M
Tennessee 47 18 2,082 3,823 $373.41M
Colorado 08 16 3,068 4,732 $350.92M
Oregon 41 18 3,126 4,642 $267.47M
Georgia 13 24 2,549 4,356 $234.21M
Illinois 17 12 2,340 3,375 $227.24M
Utah 49 10 1,798 3,349 $215.52M
Massachusetts 25 11 1,637 2,287 $198.00M
North Carolina 37 21 1,835 3,146 $189.82M
Virginia 51 18 1,515 2,446 $175.53M
New Jersey 34 16 1,443 2,176 $153.32M
Hawaii 15 4 1,088 1,686 $146.35M
Idaho 16 8 1,136 2,267 $143.75M
Pennsylvania 42 18 1,352 1,966 $121.90M
Connecticut 09 8 637 1,012 $117.49M
Maryland 24 8 990 1,528 $107.64M
Michigan 26 10 906 1,440 $104.77M
Ohio 39 14 1,037 1,652 $92.63M
Missouri 29 9 672 1,093 $80.45M
District of Columbia 11 1 535 639 $76.54M
South Carolina 45 13 715 1,277 $76.08M
New Mexico 35 5 649 1,019 $61.35M
Minnesota 27 7 603 904 $52.79M
Indiana 18 8 509 927 $41.30M
Oklahoma 40 6 590 1,068 $37.22M
Wisconsin 55 5 406 633 $35.37M
Montana 30 5 287 490 $33.46M
Arkansas 05 6 378 744 $30.21M
Louisiana 22 7 395 605 $26.46M
Kansas 20 6 334 577 $25.88M
Alabama 01 6 296 507 $24.91M
New Hampshire 33 4 155 247 $23.51M
Wyoming 56 2 60 98 $22.41M
Kentucky 21 4 247 389 $22.35M
Nebraska 31 3 219 369 $18.93M
South Dakota 46 4 150 231 $17.41M
Iowa 19 5 205 336 $16.26M
Maine 23 2 103 149 $11.94M
Rhode Island 44 2 136 187 $11.10M
Delaware 10 3 118 179 $10.27M
Mississippi 28 3 89 153 $8.23M
Vermont 50 2 76 114 $7.76M
Alaska 02 2 113 184 $6.99M
North Dakota 38 2 53 95 $2.17M
SUM — outflow LA → other states 496 rows 79,816 129,993 $8.651B
Inflow LA ← other states (from countyinflow2122.csv) $5.773B
NET AGI LOSS = outflow − inflow $2.879B

Tax-filing year 2022–23

Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023
Outflow file: countyoutflow2223.csv (4.4 MB, download)  ·  Inflow file: countyinflow2223.csv (4.4 MB, download)

Filter applied: y1_statefips=6, y1_countyfips=37 (Los Angeles County) AND y2_statefips ≠ 6 (destination is a US state other than California). Then sum the agi column × 1,000 (file values are in $thousands).

Destination state FIPS Counties Returns (n1) People (n2) AGI ($)
New York 36 21 6,136 7,560 $917.77M
Texas 48 41 9,635 16,905 $876.47M
Florida 12 35 5,125 7,999 $710.12M
Nevada 32 6 6,581 11,058 $581.41M
Washington 53 19 4,459 6,368 $459.73M
Arizona 04 12 5,678 9,350 $450.20M
Colorado 08 16 2,723 4,079 $276.65M
Oregon 41 15 2,637 3,834 $229.63M
Illinois 17 11 2,196 3,036 $207.26M
Tennessee 47 12 1,570 2,701 $198.33M
Georgia 13 18 2,092 3,473 $194.04M
Massachusetts 25 11 1,621 2,110 $163.97M
New Jersey 34 13 1,320 1,953 $161.91M
North Carolina 37 19 1,583 2,537 $138.40M
Utah 49 9 1,499 2,578 $134.66M
Virginia 51 18 1,362 2,138 $122.88M
Pennsylvania 42 14 1,183 1,618 $121.91M
Hawaii 15 4 992 1,486 $98.44M
Maryland 24 7 977 1,436 $93.26M
Idaho 16 7 826 1,471 $92.46M
Michigan 26 9 909 1,338 $81.39M
Ohio 39 13 893 1,381 $74.05M
Connecticut 09 8 595 879 $68.87M
South Carolina 45 11 597 1,032 $49.88M
District of Columbia 11 1 522 591 $49.45M
Minnesota 27 6 565 852 $48.73M
New Mexico 35 8 657 1,007 $47.13M
Missouri 29 8 607 910 $44.82M
Indiana 18 9 517 869 $35.05M
Oklahoma 40 5 536 1,036 $33.98M
Montana 30 6 279 426 $28.79M
Wisconsin 55 4 383 574 $25.99M
Arkansas 05 4 334 578 $24.10M
Louisiana 22 6 347 499 $22.47M
Kansas 20 4 285 523 $19.86M
Alabama 01 7 289 517 $19.73M
Wyoming 56 3 89 145 $19.55M
New Hampshire 33 3 147 219 $15.57M
Rhode Island 44 4 176 240 $15.30M
Kentucky 21 3 190 296 $13.64M
Maine 23 2 109 149 $13.44M
South Dakota 46 2 111 185 $13.06M
Delaware 10 2 114 187 $11.63M
Nebraska 31 3 215 379 $11.36M
Iowa 19 4 151 248 $9.42M
Alaska 02 3 179 268 $8.61M
Mississippi 28 2 55 91 $4.06M
Vermont 50 1 40 45 $2.84M
SUM — outflow LA → other states 449 rows 70,086 109,154 $7.042B
Inflow LA ← other states (from countyinflow2223.csv) $5.312B
NET AGI LOSS = outflow − inflow $1.730B

3-year IRS-verified totals (sum of the three verification tables above)

Gross outflow · LA → other states · CHART HEADLINE BASIS
$24.136B
Gross inflow · other states → LA · for context
$15.318B
NET AGI loss · 3 IRS-verified years
$8.818B

Chart claim vs. computed (gross outflow per year)

Year Chart claim (gross outflow) Computed from CSV Match?
2020–21 $8.443B $8.443B ✓
2021–22 $8.651B $8.651B ✓
2022–23 $7.042B $7.042B ✓
2023–24 ~$6.50B (estimated) — (IRS data not yet released) est
2024–25 ~$5.80B (estimated) — (IRS data not yet released) est
5-year chart headline $36.44B = $24.14B verified gross outflow + ~$12.30B estimated ✓
5-year inflow (for context) ~$25.32B = $15.32B verified + ~$10.00B estimated inflow from other states
5-year NET loss ~$11.12B = $36.44B gross outflow − $25.32B gross inflow
How to reproduce this yourself: Download any of the CSV files above into Excel/Numbers/Sheets. Apply two filters: y1_statefips = 6 AND y1_countyfips = 37 (selects only rows where origin is LA County). Then add a third filter: y2_statefips ≠ 6 (excludes within-California moves). Sum the agi column. Multiply by 1,000 (file values are in $thousands). The result is the gross outflow row above. Repeat the symmetric process on the inflow file (filter y2_statefips=6, y2_countyfips=37, y1_statefips ≠ 6) to get gross inflow. Net loss = outflow − inflow.

The 2023–24 and 2024–25 numbers are estimates because the IRS Statistics of Income migration data is released with a ~2-year lag. The most recent file available as of this writing is for tax year 2022–23. Estimates here continue the IRS-verified declining trend (−32% YoY 2020→2021, −40% YoY 2021→2022) and are consistent with US Census Bureau ACS state-to-state migration tables for California through 2023.